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Gresham's Conjecture

Posted by $ MikeMarotta 12 years, 3 months ago to Economics
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We learn it as "Gresham's Law" the claim that "bad money drives good money from the market." But the general rule has many exceptions.

From 1878-1904, the US Mint struck over 24 million ounces of silver dollars per year, far in excess of anyone's demand, to meet the political agenda of Western mining interests. The Comstock Lode and other strikes flooded the markets with cheap silver and the price of it fell relative to gold. Nonetheless, silver dollars sat in bags; and even today fully one-third are in uncirculated condition. According to Gresham's Suggestion, silver dollars should have driven gold dollars from the market. They did not.

3-cent silvers circulated alongside 3-cent nickels, both them along with 3-cent "fractional currency" notes from the Treasury.

More here:
http://necessaryfacts.blogspot.com/2012/...


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  • Posted by LionelHutz 12 years, 3 months ago
    Gresham's Law would be violated in the circumstance you're describing only if people were keeping their silver in bags because they preferred spending their GOLD dollars. While I wasn't around to see it, I suspect they weren't spending either one when they had the option of giving people paper US Notes. That's the bad money driving out the good.

    Interesting Wikipedia article on the US Note (the precursor to the Federal Reserve Note):
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat...

    Excerpt: the effect of the Civil War Legal Tender acts:
    ...the option to exchange the notes for United States bonds at par had been revoked, and notes of $1 and $2 denominations had been introduced as the appearance of fiat currency had driven even silver coinage out of circulation.

    There's bad money driving out good. What brought silver coinage back into circulation?

    1875: The Specie Payment Resumption Act:
    ...required the government to redeem them [US Notes] for gold, on demand, after 1 January 1879. As a result, the currency strengthened and by April 1876, the notes were on par with silver coins which then began to re-emerge into circulation.

    I recently read an article where Hayek was discussing Legal Tender and a caveat to Gresham's Law here:
    http://mises.org/daily/4546
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    • Posted by $ 12 years, 3 months ago
      Thanks, Lionel! Yes, I wrote about Hayek's "Denationalisation" here:
      http://necessaryfacts.blogspot.com/2011/...

      (More on this later... out the door now...)
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      • Posted by $ 12 years, 3 months ago
        Still on the run... but just to say, for any financier or for a larger business, especially an importer, it makes a difference. On the street, not so much. I trust the numismatic evidence and it is clear that if you wanted a beer, you could pay with a nickel 5-cent coin, a silver half-dime, or a fractional currency note. Your choice might depend more on the depth of your pockets or the shape of your wallet than on your fear of Gresham's Suggestions.

        We know, for example that during the Civil War, the fear that the North would lose drove metallic money into hoards. It was not the legal tender notes, but the fact that the South had better officers, and needed only to win a defensive war. Fortunes for the North remained grim until 1864. Postage stamps circulated as small change. To make them convenient, one JOHN GAULT patented a holder of brass and mica. These things are RARE today. So, they did not actually fill the need for small change on the street, or only partially so.
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